FRIDAY Dec 6th.
7:00PM
Western KY +4.5 over Jacksonville State. 5 units.
@ Jacksonville, Alabama.
Two weeks ago WKY beat Jville St. in Kentucky
Competition was strong in WKY games. They faced 6 winning record teams - all positive scoring including JVST.
No Home field advantage for WKY now in this game - but they did face 5 of 6 winning teams on the road!
The W.Ky schedule was much more challenging than who JVST played.
The opening season game for WKY was against Alabama and that added 63 points to the WKY defensive numbers, which are - in spite of that game, the defense of WKY is superior to JVSt.
The line at Kentucky was WKY-1 against JVST in the previous game just last week, Nov 30th..
JVSt runs the ball with 2 QB's. They ran for 229 yds against WKY.
Whats more important is that JVSt. only managed 13 first downs. W.KY had 23.
W.KY won the game 19-17 on a 50yd FG with .03 seconds on the clock.
WKY also had -1 turnover in the win.
WKY returned 14 starters with the startingQB. -BUT the original starter was Finley who has been out all year from Injury, after the 31-0 win over Eastern KY in week 2..
Finley a year ago, was outstanding. His numbers were 24TD's only 8 ints and a QB rating of 152.0 with a Completion percentage of 67%.
His replacement is Veltkamp - who started 11 games - is a putting up similar numbers with 22TD's and 10 Ints. with a 67% Comp percentage and a rating of 153.0.
Interesting note is that Finley has a higher points per game record on offense using last years numbers and the 31-0 score in week 2 this year.
Last year they were a 30-29 team
This year a 26-22 Team. A significant defensive improvement of 7 points!
Based on the level of the opponents this year, they are improved because they played 6 winning teams and went 3-3. Losing to Alabama 63-0 (a 35-17 team), Boston College 20-21 (a 29-24 team) and
Liberty 20-38 (a 30-23 team). Even more impressive - all 3 of those games were ROAD games.
JVST returns 11 starrers withOUT a starting QB.
Last year they were a 30-21 team. This year 35-27 team but they only played 4 teams with winning records and went 2-2. The two loses were to WKY last week and :Louisville 14-49. Both road games.
JVST and WKY both played Liberty -and JV won over Liberty while WKY lost.
These two have only played each other 2 times. One game last year and one this year.
In Both games the Dog has covered both with the Home team winning both SU.
Final fact.
In the losses to BC and Liberty, - WKY had 3 turnovers at Boston College and 4 turnovers at Liberty.
Veltkamp had 3 int's at Liberty and 2 at Boston.
IF they keep the ball they win it SU!
8:00PM
Army +5.5 over Tulane. 5 units. In West Point NY
Tulane/Army games lined at 6 or more the favorite won and covered every game since 2007.
Last week I had Memphis +12 over Tulane. Memphis won ATS and the ML.
Memphis ran for 236 yds on Tulane.
In this game - the Army Knights average 5.69 yds per rush. Thats better than Memphis.
Also Army has a great defense holding opponents to under 300 yds per game average on the season.
Army's only loss was to #5 Ranked Notre Dame, in which I posted Notre Dame for my play in that game.
I think we have a winner here with Army in this game
Tulane was ranked # 18 before last weeks loss to Memphis. They are now unranked and Memphis is now #25.
The loss to ND for Army was justified. So was the Tulane loss to Memphis.
Army and Tulane played a soft schedule. Army played 8 non-winning teams and went 8-0. Tulane played 7 and went 6-1.
Tulane played 4 winners and went 2-2.
Army played 2 winners and went 1-1.
I think Army's defense is better allowing only 15 pts per game while Tulane allows 18, based on the huge number ND put up on Army, Army clearly has the better defense with the game removed in the stats. Tulane can't stop the run.
Final note:
Memphis was unranked last week and now is ranked #25. Army is ranked #24 this week.
Tulane now unranked, is playing a ranked team for the first time this year.
Army has Navy next week but this game is bigger with Championship on the line
8:00PM
Bosie #10. -4 over UNLV. 2 units A Home Field Game for Boise.
UNDER 58. ..........................2 units
As noted - last week when I bet against Boise, that they have the worst pass defense in the MW conference. DEAD LAST #12.,
UNLV is nearly as bad ranked #9.
Both teams are great on running the ball. UNLV #1 Boise #3.
Both defenses against the run are nearly even at #1 and #2.
Where is the advantage?
On Oct 25th Boise beat UNLV 29-24. That was a road game for Boise.
That game was lined @ -4 as well, like this game
This game is on Boise home field. The line is -4 again.
One major difference now is that the UNLV game was in warm Nevada weather.
Its supposed to be upper 20's for this game.
Saturday
12 NOON' Dome at Detroit.
Miami, O.-2 over Ohio. 5 units
Returning 12 starters w/the QB is where the advantage is here for Miami. They have also beat Ohio back on Oct 19th,
For Ohio, this is a double-revenge game as they lost last year as well to make it two losses in a row.
On road games, Ohio faced KY, Syracuse, C.Mich. Kent and Toledo. When they faced Toledo, the Rockets were already fading fast. The Rockets lost their last 4 of the last 7 su. In the losses Toledo couldn't score over 15 points in three of those four games.
When Miami faced Toledo early in the year the Rockets were 3-1 and playing well.
The last few road games for Ohio were not impressive at all.. The lack of returning starters (9) from a year ago will show up in a Championship game.
The deciding factor is that Miami faced Notre Dame to a 3-28 score and held them to a lower score than what Ohio did in losses with KY, 6-41 or Syracuse ,22-38. Neither team is now ranked. ND is #5.
12 NOON. AT&T in Arlington Texas.
ISU +2 over Az state. 5 units
Nineteen Starters from a year ago w/the QB is one great dog play especially when the dog has allowed 20 points or less on defense.
Added to the fact that ISU played 5 teams with winning records to finish the season with a plus +11 in scoring advantage.
In those 5 games ISU outscored theta's by an average of 36-29.
Last year - ISU was also a plus +3 scoring team 26-23, which makes their current season numbers solid with the increase in scoring.
Arizona State played 4 teams with winning records.
Arizona returns 15 starters from last yea w/the QB but was a negative scoring team a year ago with 18 on offense and 32 on defense.
This year they are far better with a Plus +10 scoring advantage 32-22.
When comparing the 4 games against winning teams, Arizona only outcored them on average by a narrow margin of 1 pt. 29-28.
The two highest scoring games were home games with BYU and UCF. This game is in Texas,
4PM. Mercedes Benz Stadium. Atlanta Georgia.
Georgia +2.5 over Texas. 10 units
The rematch from week seven (7)
Texas started off the season with 6 straight wins. All of those games were against losing teams. Since then every game they played against winning teams was much different. They lost to Gorgia 15-30, then got by Vanderbilt 27-24, beat Arkansas 20-10, Texas A&M 17-7.
What we have here is a team when playing better competition is average at best on the scoring. They won no game by more than 10 points.
IN the previous game with Texas and Georgia there were 7 turnovers in that game. 4 by Texas and 3 by Georgia.
The Bulldogs and Texas both underachieved on yardage. Neither team reached 300 yards of offense. I
n fact, the average yards per play was a season low for Georgia at 4.0 while holding Texas to a worse avg at 3.6. Those are numbers, that usually are connected to teams with losing records.
Georgia QB Beck was intercepted 3 times. Worse yet - Georgia only had 14 1st downs.
Beck is of concern as he has underachieved often this season.
In addition, Georgia has only covered the spread 3 times all season.
Texas in that game, never scored until the 3rd quarter with two TD's. They were shutout in the 1st half and again in the 4th qtr.
If Beck doesn't get intercepted - Georgia wins it.
Final fact. Texas played one ranked team -Georgia.
Georgia played 4 ranked teams,
Alabama, Texas, Mississippi, and Tennessee.
I will add these later games soon,
Marshall vs ULL
Clem/ SMU.
Penn State vs Oregon
7:00PM
Western KY +4.5 over Jacksonville State. 5 units.
@ Jacksonville, Alabama.
Two weeks ago WKY beat Jville St. in Kentucky
Competition was strong in WKY games. They faced 6 winning record teams - all positive scoring including JVST.
No Home field advantage for WKY now in this game - but they did face 5 of 6 winning teams on the road!
The W.Ky schedule was much more challenging than who JVST played.
The opening season game for WKY was against Alabama and that added 63 points to the WKY defensive numbers, which are - in spite of that game, the defense of WKY is superior to JVSt.
The line at Kentucky was WKY-1 against JVST in the previous game just last week, Nov 30th..
JVSt runs the ball with 2 QB's. They ran for 229 yds against WKY.
Whats more important is that JVSt. only managed 13 first downs. W.KY had 23.
W.KY won the game 19-17 on a 50yd FG with .03 seconds on the clock.
WKY also had -1 turnover in the win.
WKY returned 14 starters with the startingQB. -BUT the original starter was Finley who has been out all year from Injury, after the 31-0 win over Eastern KY in week 2..
Finley a year ago, was outstanding. His numbers were 24TD's only 8 ints and a QB rating of 152.0 with a Completion percentage of 67%.
His replacement is Veltkamp - who started 11 games - is a putting up similar numbers with 22TD's and 10 Ints. with a 67% Comp percentage and a rating of 153.0.
Interesting note is that Finley has a higher points per game record on offense using last years numbers and the 31-0 score in week 2 this year.
Last year they were a 30-29 team
This year a 26-22 Team. A significant defensive improvement of 7 points!
Based on the level of the opponents this year, they are improved because they played 6 winning teams and went 3-3. Losing to Alabama 63-0 (a 35-17 team), Boston College 20-21 (a 29-24 team) and
Liberty 20-38 (a 30-23 team). Even more impressive - all 3 of those games were ROAD games.
JVST returns 11 starrers withOUT a starting QB.
Last year they were a 30-21 team. This year 35-27 team but they only played 4 teams with winning records and went 2-2. The two loses were to WKY last week and :Louisville 14-49. Both road games.
JVST and WKY both played Liberty -and JV won over Liberty while WKY lost.
These two have only played each other 2 times. One game last year and one this year.
In Both games the Dog has covered both with the Home team winning both SU.
Final fact.
In the losses to BC and Liberty, - WKY had 3 turnovers at Boston College and 4 turnovers at Liberty.
Veltkamp had 3 int's at Liberty and 2 at Boston.
IF they keep the ball they win it SU!
8:00PM
Army +5.5 over Tulane. 5 units. In West Point NY
Tulane/Army games lined at 6 or more the favorite won and covered every game since 2007.
Last week I had Memphis +12 over Tulane. Memphis won ATS and the ML.
Memphis ran for 236 yds on Tulane.
In this game - the Army Knights average 5.69 yds per rush. Thats better than Memphis.
Also Army has a great defense holding opponents to under 300 yds per game average on the season.
Army's only loss was to #5 Ranked Notre Dame, in which I posted Notre Dame for my play in that game.
I think we have a winner here with Army in this game
Tulane was ranked # 18 before last weeks loss to Memphis. They are now unranked and Memphis is now #25.
The loss to ND for Army was justified. So was the Tulane loss to Memphis.
Army and Tulane played a soft schedule. Army played 8 non-winning teams and went 8-0. Tulane played 7 and went 6-1.
Tulane played 4 winners and went 2-2.
Army played 2 winners and went 1-1.
I think Army's defense is better allowing only 15 pts per game while Tulane allows 18, based on the huge number ND put up on Army, Army clearly has the better defense with the game removed in the stats. Tulane can't stop the run.
Final note:
Memphis was unranked last week and now is ranked #25. Army is ranked #24 this week.
Tulane now unranked, is playing a ranked team for the first time this year.
Army has Navy next week but this game is bigger with Championship on the line
8:00PM
Bosie #10. -4 over UNLV. 2 units A Home Field Game for Boise.
UNDER 58. ..........................2 units
As noted - last week when I bet against Boise, that they have the worst pass defense in the MW conference. DEAD LAST #12.,
UNLV is nearly as bad ranked #9.
Both teams are great on running the ball. UNLV #1 Boise #3.
Both defenses against the run are nearly even at #1 and #2.
Where is the advantage?
On Oct 25th Boise beat UNLV 29-24. That was a road game for Boise.
That game was lined @ -4 as well, like this game
This game is on Boise home field. The line is -4 again.
One major difference now is that the UNLV game was in warm Nevada weather.
Its supposed to be upper 20's for this game.
Saturday
12 NOON' Dome at Detroit.
Miami, O.-2 over Ohio. 5 units
Returning 12 starters w/the QB is where the advantage is here for Miami. They have also beat Ohio back on Oct 19th,
For Ohio, this is a double-revenge game as they lost last year as well to make it two losses in a row.
On road games, Ohio faced KY, Syracuse, C.Mich. Kent and Toledo. When they faced Toledo, the Rockets were already fading fast. The Rockets lost their last 4 of the last 7 su. In the losses Toledo couldn't score over 15 points in three of those four games.
When Miami faced Toledo early in the year the Rockets were 3-1 and playing well.
The last few road games for Ohio were not impressive at all.. The lack of returning starters (9) from a year ago will show up in a Championship game.
The deciding factor is that Miami faced Notre Dame to a 3-28 score and held them to a lower score than what Ohio did in losses with KY, 6-41 or Syracuse ,22-38. Neither team is now ranked. ND is #5.
12 NOON. AT&T in Arlington Texas.
ISU +2 over Az state. 5 units
Nineteen Starters from a year ago w/the QB is one great dog play especially when the dog has allowed 20 points or less on defense.
Added to the fact that ISU played 5 teams with winning records to finish the season with a plus +11 in scoring advantage.
In those 5 games ISU outscored theta's by an average of 36-29.
Last year - ISU was also a plus +3 scoring team 26-23, which makes their current season numbers solid with the increase in scoring.
Arizona State played 4 teams with winning records.
Arizona returns 15 starters from last yea w/the QB but was a negative scoring team a year ago with 18 on offense and 32 on defense.
This year they are far better with a Plus +10 scoring advantage 32-22.
When comparing the 4 games against winning teams, Arizona only outcored them on average by a narrow margin of 1 pt. 29-28.
The two highest scoring games were home games with BYU and UCF. This game is in Texas,
4PM. Mercedes Benz Stadium. Atlanta Georgia.
Georgia +2.5 over Texas. 10 units
The rematch from week seven (7)
Texas started off the season with 6 straight wins. All of those games were against losing teams. Since then every game they played against winning teams was much different. They lost to Gorgia 15-30, then got by Vanderbilt 27-24, beat Arkansas 20-10, Texas A&M 17-7.
What we have here is a team when playing better competition is average at best on the scoring. They won no game by more than 10 points.
IN the previous game with Texas and Georgia there were 7 turnovers in that game. 4 by Texas and 3 by Georgia.
The Bulldogs and Texas both underachieved on yardage. Neither team reached 300 yards of offense. I
n fact, the average yards per play was a season low for Georgia at 4.0 while holding Texas to a worse avg at 3.6. Those are numbers, that usually are connected to teams with losing records.
Georgia QB Beck was intercepted 3 times. Worse yet - Georgia only had 14 1st downs.
Beck is of concern as he has underachieved often this season.
In addition, Georgia has only covered the spread 3 times all season.
Texas in that game, never scored until the 3rd quarter with two TD's. They were shutout in the 1st half and again in the 4th qtr.
If Beck doesn't get intercepted - Georgia wins it.
Final fact. Texas played one ranked team -Georgia.
Georgia played 4 ranked teams,
Alabama, Texas, Mississippi, and Tennessee.
I will add these later games soon,
Marshall vs ULL
Clem/ SMU.
Penn State vs Oregon
